Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 2.432459 2.851700 3.316921 3.870798 4.511620 5.229080 6.092621
2025-11-09 1.657992 2.181685 2.827681 3.680291 4.772976 6.123085 7.914340
2025-11-16 1.234597 1.790139 2.538720 3.614663 5.113950 7.120430 9.999080
2025-11-23 0.966143 1.522849 2.331864 3.581902 5.450806 8.124107 12.215968
2025-11-30 0.825020 1.397879 2.286345 3.746798 6.064782 9.571882 15.239356
2025-12-07 0.688779 1.246864 2.165291 3.762049 6.436412 10.690993 17.906503
2025-12-14 0.578864 1.114025 2.044155 3.746476 6.740757 11.725779 20.556116
2025-12-21 0.495522 1.009520 1.949240 3.752519 7.070094 12.827222 23.436602
2025-12-28 0.466622 0.999765 2.018948 4.057691 7.958481 14.976129 28.358950
2026-01-04 0.416125 0.937179 1.978063 4.146982 8.459115 16.493978 32.334556
2026-01-11 0.375502 0.886696 1.951282 4.256564 9.007705 18.155747 36.757927
2026-01-18 0.332719 0.823021 1.886500 4.277272 9.379568 19.520024 40.764288
2026-01-25 0.282245 0.733472 1.755259 4.144820 9.434798 20.302505 43.789237
2026-02-01 0.234149 0.639753 1.599138 3.933866 9.296017 20.683089 46.066621
2026-02-08 0.202544 0.580176 1.510734 3.861253 9.447865 21.682242 49.748071
2026-02-15 0.177717 0.532807 1.442949 3.825416 9.676156 22.869265 53.968721
2026-02-22 0.166762 0.520807 1.460734 4.000550 10.421152 25.278399 61.150272
2026-03-01 0.149704 0.487748 1.418380 4.016648 10.783323 26.860920 66.640407
2026-03-08 0.133469 0.453502 1.366763 4.000032 11.061176 28.278496 71.907965
2026-03-15 0.120118 0.425113 1.326221 4.006444 11.398136 29.874121 77.774595
2026-03-22 0.118802 0.434989 1.396529 4.331114 12.614278 33.746234 89.571309
2026-03-29 0.110105 0.418527 1.386693 4.426093 13.225426 36.180186 98.072546
2026-04-05 0.102811 0.405265 1.384294 4.542650 13.912148 38.882621 107.540280